Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Tüzemen, Didem

Titel

Job polarization and the natural rate of unemployment in the United States

Ist Teil von

• Economics letters, 2019-02, Vol.175 (February), p.97-100

Ort / Verlag

Amsterdam: Elsevier B.V

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Quelle

Alma/SFX Local Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States that accounts for changes in the age, gender, and skill composition of the labor force. Using micro-level data from the Current Population Survey for the period 1994–2017, I find that the natural rate of unemployment has declined by 0.5 percentage point since 1994 and was 4.5% at the end of 2017. My projections show that ongoing demographic and technological changes could lower the trend rate further to 4.4% by the end of 2022. •I present a new estimate of the natural rate of unemployment in the United States.•I account for the changes in the age-gender-skill composition of the labor force.•The natural rate of unemployment was 4.5% at the end of 2017.•Aging and job polarization could lower the trend rate to 4.4% by the end of 2022.