Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Li, Chao
• Zwiers, Francis
• Zhang, Xuebin
• Li, Guilong

Titel

How Much Information Is Required to Well Constrain Local Estimates of Future Precipitation Extremes?

Ist Teil von

• Earth's future, 2019-01, Vol.7 (1), p.11-24

Ort / Verlag

Bognor Regis: John Wiley & Sons, Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Global warming is expected to increase the amount of atmospheric moisture, resulting in heavier extreme precipitation. Various studies have used the historical relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature (temperature scaling) to provide guidance about precipitation extremes in a future warmer climate. Here we assess how much information is required to robustly identify temperature scaling relationships, and whether these relationships are equally effective at different times in the future in estimating precipitation extremes everywhere across North America. Using a large ensemble of 35 North American regional climate simulations of the period 1951–2100, we show that individual climate simulations of length comparable to that of typical instrumental records are unable to constrain temperature scaling relationships well enough to reliably estimate future extremes of local precipitation accumulation for hourly to daily durations in the model's climate. Hence, temperature scaling relationships estimated from the limited historical observations are unlikely to be able to provide reliable guidance for future adaptation planning at local spatial scales. In contrast, well‐constrained temperature scaling relations based on multiple regional climate simulations do provide a feasible basis for accurately projecting precipitation extremes of hourly to daily durations in different future periods over more than 90% of the North American land area. Plain Language Summary Global warming is expected to increase the amount of atmospheric moisture, resulting in heavier extreme precipitation. Various studies have used the historical relationship between extreme precipitation and temperature (temperature scaling) to provide guidance about precipitation extremes in a future warmer climate. Temperature scaling is useful for this purpose only when it can be robustly identified. Using a large ensemble of 35 North American regional climate simulations of the period 1951–2100, we show that individual climate simulations of length comparable to that of typical instrumental records are unable to identify temperature scaling relationships robustly enough to reliably estimate future extremes of local precipitation accumulation for hourly to daily durations in the model's climate. Hence, temperature scaling relationships estimated from the limited historical observations are unlikely to be able to provide reliable guidance for future adaptation planning at local spatial scales. This also has broader implications for how we account for nonstationarity more generally in historical observations. In contrast, temperature scaling relations based on multiple regional climate simulations do provide a feasible basis for accurately projecting precipitation extremes of hourly to daily durations over more than 90% of the North American land area. Key Points Estimates of the scaling of local extreme precipitation with temperature based on local precipitation observations are highly uncertain Records with lengths that are many multiples of the length of available observations are needed to well constrain the scaling relation Well‐constrained scaling relations can reliably estimate climate modeled extreme precipitation changes over almost all of North America