Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Gebrechorkos, Solomon H.
• Hülsmann, Stephan
• Bernhofer, Christian

Titel

Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania

Ist Teil von

• International journal of climatology, 2019-01, Vol.39 (1), p.18-30

Ort / Verlag

Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Wiley Blackwell Single Titles

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• East Africa is one of the most vulnerable regions of Africa to extreme weather and climate events. Regional and local information on climate extremes is critical for monitoring and managing the impacts and developing sustainable adaptation measures. However, this type of information is not readily available at the necessary spatial resolution. Therefore, here we test trends and variability of temperature (1979–2010) and precipitation (1981–2016) extremes in East Africa, particularly Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, at a spatial resolution of 0.1 and 0.05°, respectively, using the indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). We use gridded data sets with high accuracy and resolution from the Terrestrial Hydrology Research Group, University of Princeton and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Trends of 19 indices are computed by fitting a linear model and using the nonparametric Mann–Kendall test and the magnitude of change is computed using the Sen's slope method. The results show an increasing trend in monthly maximum and minimum values of daily maximum and minimum temperature in large parts of the region. This is accompanied by significant increasing trends in warm nights (TN90p), warm days (TX90p), warm spell duration index (WSDI), and summer days index (SU). In addition, cold days (TX10p) and cold nights (TN10p) showed a significant decreasing trend. In general, the results show an increasing tendency in temperatures extremes, which is in line with rising global mean temperature. In addition, most of the temperature extremes observed after 2000 are warmer than the long‐term mean (1979–2010). Precipitation indices, on the other hand, showed increasing and decreasing trends in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, but no general pattern. The outcomes enable identifying hot spot areas and planning of adaptation and mitigation measures at much finer spatial scale than previously possible. Significant changes in monthly maximum values of daily maximum (TXx) and minimum (TNx) and monthly minimum values of daily maximum (TXn) and minimum (TNn) temperature are observed in large parts of East Africa. This change is accompanied by significant increasing trends in warm indices (e.g., warm nights and warm days) and decrease in cold indices (e.g., cold nights and days). Observed temperature extremes after 2000 are warmer than the base period (1981–2010).