Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Revak, Joshua

Titel

Accuracy in Polling: An Exploratory Study of Michigan 2016 Presidential Polls

Ort / Verlag

ProQuest Dissertations Publishing

Erscheinungsjahr

2018

Link zum Volltext

• ProQuest

Quelle

ProQuest Dissertations & Theses A&I

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• In the State of Michigan both the democrat primary and the general elections were more inaccurate than any scientific polls have been since the early 20 th century. This thesis explored two questions. The first was, how wrong were the polls in the 2016 Michigan presidential election? The second was, how and in what ways might pollsters have made different analyses in forecasting the same election? This qualitative study was conducted using primary research through interviews with pollsters who conducted polls of the 2016 elections in the State of Michigan. The findings showed that the polls were wrong and that polling could be improved through the integration of new technologies in voter contact methods, changes in demographic sample weighting procedures based on voter enthusiasm, and better interpretation of polls by public opinion research consumers.