Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Few, Sheridan
• Schmidt, Oliver
• Offer, Gregory J.
• Brandon, Nigel
• Nelson, Jenny
• Gambhir, Ajay

Titel

Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations

Ist Teil von

• Energy policy, 2018-03, Vol.114, p.578-590

Ort / Verlag

Kidlington: Elsevier Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2018

Quelle

PAIS Index

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• This paper presents probabilistic estimates of the 2020 and 2030 cost and cycle life of lithium-ion battery (LiB) packs for off-grid stationary electricity storage made by leading battery experts from academia and industry, and insights on the role of public research and development (R&D) funding and other drivers in determining these. By 2020, experts expect developments to arise chiefly through engineering, manufacturing and incremental chemistry changes, and expect additional R&D funding to have little impact on cost. By 2030, experts indicate that more fundamental chemistry changes are possible, particularly under higher R&D funding scenarios, but are not inevitable. Experts suggest that significant improvements in cycle life (eg. doubling or greater) are more achievable than in cost, particularly by 2020, and that R&D could play a greater role in driving these. Experts expressed some concern, but had relatively little knowledge, of the environmental impact of LiBs. Analysis is conducted of the implications of prospective LiB improvements for the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic + LiB systems for off-grid electrification. [Display omitted] •Expert views on future cost, cycle life, and environmental impact are presented.•1, 2, and 10× public R&D scenarios, with/without non R&D drivers, are considered.•By 2020, engineering, design, and manufacturing improvements dominate.•By 2030, more radical chemistry improvements are possible.•Public R&D funding and deployment are both important in driving improvements.