Sie befinden Sich nicht im Netzwerk der Universität Paderborn. Der Zugriff auf elektronische Ressourcen ist gegebenenfalls nur via VPN oder Shibboleth (DFN-AAI) möglich. mehr Informationen...
The Presidential Puzzle: Political Cycles and the Stock Market
Ist Teil von
The Journal of finance (New York), 2003-10, Vol.58 (5), p.1841-1872
Ort / Verlag
Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing
Erscheinungsjahr
2003
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Alma/SFX Local Collection
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The excess return in the stock market is higher under Democratic than Republican presidencies: 9 percent for the value-weighted and 16 percent for the equal-weighted portfolio. The difference comes from higher real stock returns and lower real interest rates, is statistically significant, and is robust in sub-samples. The difference in returns is not explained by business-cycle variables related to expected returns, and is not concentrated around election dates. There is no difference in the riskiness of the stock market across presidencies that could justify a risk premium. The difference in returns through the political cycle is therefore a puzzle.