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The review of economics and statistics, 2005-11, Vol.87 (4), p.697-708
Ort / Verlag
238 Main St., Suite 500, Cambridge, MA 02142-1046, USA: MIT Press
Erscheinungsjahr
2005
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
EBSCOhost Business Source Ultimate
Beschreibungen/Notizen
We develop a model of GDP growth under which regime changes are triggered stochastically by an observable tension index, constructed as the geometric sum of deviations of actual GDP growth from a corresponding sustainable rate. Within expansionary regimes, the tension index tends to increase, which heightens the probability of a regime change. Given a regime change, the process becomes reversed, and the tension index begins to decline along a newly established path. Linking the behavior of the tension index to GDP growth enables us to capture floor and ceiling effects.