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Choques estruturais e teoria fiscal do nível de preços no Brasil: uma análise empírica para o período pós-metas de inflação
Ist Teil von
Ensaios FEE, 2015-06, Vol.36 (1), p.33
Ort / Verlag
Porto Alegre: Fundacao de Economia e Estatistica, Siegfried Emanuel Heuser
Erscheinungsjahr
2015
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
EZB Electronic Journals Library
Beschreibungen/Notizen
The purpose of this article is to verify the validity of the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) for the Brazilian economy in the post-inflation targeting period (from January 2000 to December 2013) using the methodology proposed by Kim (2003). Based on a new-Keynesian model, it is possible to verify the existence of a fiscal dominance system through the analysis of impulse response functions of an estimated SVAR model (structural vector autoregression). The key to identifying which regime occurs (fiscal or monetary dominance) is to analyze the occurrence of inflation reversal into response to aggregate-demand and aggregate-supply shocks, since, according to the theoretical model, such a phenomenon would occur only in the case of a non-Ricardian regime (fiscal dominance). The findings do not support the existence of a non-Ricardian regime in Brazil during the period analyzed, which is consistent with previous empirical studies.