Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Funk, Chris
• Husak, Greg
• Michaelsen, Joel
• Shukla, Shraddhanand
• Hoell, Andrew
• Lyon, Bradfield
• Hoerling, Martin P
• Liebmann, Brant
• Zhang, Tao
• Verdin, James
• Galu, Gideon
• Eilerts, Gary
• Rowland, James

Titel

ATTRIBUTION OF 2012 AND 2003-12 RAINFALL DEFICITS IN EASTERN KENYA AND SOUTHERN SOMALIA

Ist Teil von

• Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2013-09, Vol.94 (9), p.S45

Ort / Verlag

Boston: American Meteorological Society

Erscheinungsjahr

2013

Quelle

EZB Free E-Journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• In this study, we examine the question of whether SSTs caused the poor 2012 March-May eastern East African rains and increased the frequency of dry events over the past decade (2003-12), using two new Global Forecast System (Environmental Modeling Center 2003) version 2 (GFS) ensembles to estimate fractions of attributable risk (FAR; Allen 2003) associated with 30 full-ocean simulations and 30 simulations driven only with de-trended ENSO-only SSTs. [...]Pacific decadal variations have also likely played an important role, triggering a post-1998 climate shift(Gu and Adler 2013) that enhanced tropical Pacific precipitation and SST gradients.