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A model of extinction probability, based on the general theory of island biogeography [MacArthur and Wilson, 1967], is proposed for humans on oceanic islands; extinction probability is determined by island carrying capacity, frequency and amplitude of fluctuations in resources determining carrying capacity, and the net costs of contact and exchange between population units. The model predicts that extinction probability will determine island settlement patterns within an island group resulting in nonsettlement of islands with low carrying capacities and settlement of all islands with high carrying capacities. Data examined from the Marshall Islands tend to support the model. The model is extended to initial atoll colonization patterns. Possible requirements for initial settlement are suggested.