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BibTeX
Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts
Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2012-10, Vol.138 (668), p.1814-1827
Hagedorn, Renate
Buizza, Roberto
Hamill, Thomas M.
Leutbecher, Martin
Palmer, T. N.
2012
Details
Autor(en) / Beteiligte
Hagedorn, Renate
Buizza, Roberto
Hamill, Thomas M.
Leutbecher, Martin
Palmer, T. N.
Titel
Comparing TIGGE multimodel forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF ensemble forecasts
Ist Teil von
Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2012-10, Vol.138 (668), p.1814-1827
Ort / Verlag
Chichester, UK: John Wiley & Sons, Ltd
Erscheinungsjahr
2012
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Wiley Online Library
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Forecasts provided by the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) project were compared with reforecast‐calibrated ensemble predictions from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in extratropical regions. Considering the statistical performance of global probabilistic forecasts of 850 hPa and 2 m temperatures, a multimodel ensemble containing nine ensemble prediction systems (EPS) from the TIGGE archive did not improve on the performance of the best single‐model, the ECMWF EPS. However, a reduced multimodel system, consisting of only the four best ensemble systems, provided by Canada, the USA, the United Kingdom and ECMWF, showed an improved performance. The multimodel ensemble provides a benchmark for the single‐model systems contributing to the multimodel. However, reforecast‐calibrated ECMWF EPS forecasts were of comparable or superior quality to the multimodel predictions, when verified against two different reanalyses or observations. This improved performance was achieved by using the ECMWF reforecast dataset to correct for systematic errors and spread deficiencies. The ECMWF EPS was the main contributor for the improved performance of the multimodel ensemble; that is, if the multimodel system did not include the ECMWF contribution, it was not able to improve on the performance of the ECMWF EPS alone. These results were shown to be only marginally sensitive to the choice of verification dataset. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society
Sprache
Englisch
Identifikatoren
ISSN: 0035-9009
eISSN: 1477-870X
DOI: 10.1002/qj.1895
Titel-ID: cdi_proquest_journals_1266248921
Format
–
Schlagworte
calibration
,
Earth, ocean, space
,
Exact sciences and technology
,
External geophysics
,
forecast evaluation
,
Meteorology
,
multimodel ensemble
,
reforecasts
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