Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Weisberg, Herbert I

Titel

PROBABILITY AND REALITY

Ist Teil von

• Willful Ignorance, 2014, p.253-282

Ort / Verlag

United States: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated

Erscheinungsjahr

2014

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Wiley Online Library All Obooks

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• As a purely mental phenomenon, probability is completely free‐floating, not intrinsically tethered to the real world in any sense. It is useless if it is completely divorced from reality. Fisher's view of probability was first stated in one of his earliest papers as the probability is something that is “imagined” and refers to an “infinite hypothetical population” of objects. Fisher attempted high‐wire act of maintaining Jacob Bernoulli's balance on razor's edge. His exposition of probability as essentially metaphorical was completely out of step with his times. Fisher, like Keynes, understood that determining a reference class from which the case in hand could be regarded as random representative was fundamental. He articulated three requirements that are necessary for a valid statement of mathematical probability. In a similar way, knowing true protocol in Monty Hall Problem would allow the player to determine whether or not Monty's clue was relevant in Fisher's sense.