Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Weisberg, Herbert I

Titel

A QUIET REVOLUTION

Ist Teil von

• Willful Ignorance, 2014, p.19-40

Ort / Verlag

United States: John Wiley & Sons, Incorporated

Erscheinungsjahr

2014

Quelle

Wiley Online Library All Obooks

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• In the last half of the seventeenth century, a revolution in science began, fueled by a radically new type of mathematics. The Scientific Revolution led by Isaac Newton (1642–1727) and Gottfried Leibniz (1646–1716) would certainly fit this description. The author believes that one particularly important source of this “delay” lies in the enigmatic nature of willful ignorance, upon which our notions of probability and statistics depend. The rise of modern probability and statistics has been described as the taming of chance. The narrative fallacy refers to the folly of seeking causal explanations for phenomena that are essentially random in nature. However, the converse of the narrative fallacy is what the author call ignorance fallacy. The author believes that the emerging reality requires some radically new thinking about uncertainty and data analysis.