Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Holmes, Christopher D
• Tang, Qi
• Prather, Michael J

Titel

Uncertainties in climate assessment for the case of aviation NO

Ist Teil von

• Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences - PNAS, 2011-07, Vol.108 (27), p.10997-11002

Ort / Verlag

United States: National Academy of Sciences

Erscheinungsjahr

2011

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

EZB Electronic Journals Library

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Nitrogen oxides emitted from aircraft engines alter the chemistry of the atmosphere, perturbing the greenhouse gases methane (CH₄) and ozone (O₃). We quantify uncertainties in radiative forcing (RF) due to short-lived increases in O₃, long-lived decreases in CH₄ and O₃, and their net effect, using the ensemble of published models and a factor decomposition of each forcing. The decomposition captures major features of the ensemble, and also shows which processes drive the total uncertainty in several climate metrics. Aviation-specific factors drive most of the uncertainty for the short-lived O₃ and long-lived CH₄ RFs, but a nonaviation factor dominates for long-lived O₃. The model ensemble shows strong anticorrelation between the short-lived and long-lived RF perturbations (R² = 0.87). Uncertainty in the net RF is highly sensitive to this correlation. We reproduce the correlation and ensemble spread in one model, showing that processes controlling the background tropospheric abundance of nitrogen oxides are likely responsible for the modeling uncertainty in climate impacts from aviation.