Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Blanken, Maarten O
• Koffijberg, Hendrik
• Nibbelke, Elisabeth E
• Rovers, Maroeska M
• Bont, Louis
• Semple, Malcolm Gracie

Titel

Prospective validation of a prognostic model for respiratory syncytial virus bronchiolitis in late preterm infants: a multicenter birth cohort study

Ist Teil von

• PloS one, 2013-03, Vol.8 (3), p.e59161-e59161

Ort / Verlag

United States: Public Library of Science

Erscheinungsjahr

2013

Quelle

Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Freely accessible e-journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• This study aimed to update and validate a prediction rule for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) hospitalization in preterm infants 33-35 weeks gestational age (WGA). The RISK study consisted of 2 multicenter prospective birth cohorts in 41 hospitals. Risk factors were assessed at birth among healthy preterm infants 33-35 WGA. All hospitalizations for respiratory tract infection were screened for proven RSV infection by immunofluorescence or polymerase chain reaction. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to update an existing prediction model in the derivation cohort (n = 1,227). In the validation cohort (n = 1,194), predicted versus actual RSV hospitalization rates were compared to determine validity of the model. RSV hospitalization risk in both cohorts was comparable (5.7% versus 4.9%). In the derivation cohort, a prediction rule to determine probability of RSV hospitalization was developed using 4 predictors: family atopy (OR 1.9; 95%CI, 1.1-3.2), birth period (OR 2.6; 1.6-4.2), breastfeeding (OR 1.7; 1.0-2.7) and siblings or daycare attendance (OR 4.7; 1.7-13.1). The model showed good discrimination (c-statistic 0.703; 0.64-0.76, 0.702 after bootstrapping). External validation showed good discrimination and calibration (c-statistic 0.678; 0.61-0.74). Our prospectively validated prediction rule identifies infants at increased RSV hospitalization risk, who may benefit from targeted preventive interventions. This prediction rule can facilitate country-specific, cost-effective use of RSV prophylaxis in late preterm infants.