Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Hsiang, Solomon
• Kopp, Robert
• Jina, Amir
• Rising, James
• Delgado, Michael
• Mohan, Shashank
• Rasmussen, D. J.
• Muir-Wood, Robert
• Wilson, Paul
• Oppenheimer, Michael
• Larsen, Kate
• Houser, Trevor

Titel

Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

Ist Teil von

• Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science), 2017-06, Vol.356 (6345), p.1362-1369

Ort / Verlag

United States: American Association for the Advancement of Science

Erscheinungsjahr

2017

Quelle

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).