Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Merk, Gerhard

Titel

Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Investitionstheorie

Ist Teil von

• Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1958-01, Vol.81, p.66-79

Ort / Verlag

Hoffmann und Campe Verlag

Erscheinungsjahr

1958

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Alma/SFX Local Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Economists have lost sight, during the last few years, of the problem of a satisfactory functioning of investment. Authors who were studying business economics regarded the question of investment as a complex of irreducible factors, just as very many entrepreneurs still hold this view. A new way was first opened up by the elaboration of methods of calculating the economic use of business items. Considering further that there still is a fair amount of scepsis abroad with regard to modern economic theory, as well as a lack of understanding macro-economic relations, it is not surprising to find that a whole collection of models have appeared in which it has been attempted to solve the investment problem by the aid of the probability calculus. Prima vista, the ideas of Shackle seem to be the most convincing. However, we were able to see that Shackle's theory of potential surprise is not at all applicable to the investment problem. Uncertainty in the sense used by Shackle is a risk sui generis and can be calculated as such.