Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Tao, Xuefeng
• Li, Zhi
• Gong, Qiuwu
• Zhang, Yasheng
• Jiang, Ping

Titel

Uncertainty Analysis of the Short-Arc Initial Orbit Determination

Ist Teil von

• IEEE access, 2020, Vol.8, p.38045-38059

Ort / Verlag

Piscataway: IEEE

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

EZB Free E-Journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The solution of the short-arc angles-only orbit determination problem has large uncertainty because the topocentric range is not observable. For a certain angular observation tracklet with measurement noise, there exist numerous potential orbits, all of which are compatible with the observations. However, the solution of a deterministic initial orbit determination algorithm is usually far different from the true orbit, especially for the semimajor axis and the eccentricity. A new sampling method is proposed to describe the probability distribution of the orbit determination solutions. Firstly, a series of orbits are sampled in the semimajor axis - eccentricity plane. A chi-square test method is proposed to select candidate orbits from the sample orbits. The weights of the candidate orbits are calculated to measure their probability being the true orbit. Finally, the kernel density estimation algorithm is used to estimate the probability density function of the true orbits. With some a priori assumptions, the candidate orbits can be further screened, and their weight can be modified. The a priori knowledge can significantly improve the accuracy of the orbit determination solution.