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Solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) has a high correlation with Gross Primary Production (GPP). However, studies focusing on the impact of drought on the SIF-GPP relationship have had mixed results at various scales, and the mechanisms controlling the dynamics between photosynthesis and fluorescence emission under water stress are not well understood. We developed a leaf-scale measurement system to perform concurrent measurements of active and passive fluorescence, and gas-exchange rates for winter wheat experiencing a one-month progressive drought. Our results confirmed that: (1) shifts in light energy allocation towards decreasing photochemistry (the quantum yields of photochemical quenching in PSII decreased from 0.42 to 0.21 under intermediate light conditions) and increasing fluorescence emissions (the quantum yields of fluorescence increased to 0.062 from 0.024) as drought progressed enhance the degree of nonlinearity of the SIF-GPP relationship, and (2) SIF alone has a limited capacity to track changes in the photosynthetic status of plants under drought conditions. However, by incorporating the water stress factor into a SIF-based mechanistic photosynthesis model, we show that drought-induced variations in a variety of key photosynthetic parameters, including stomatal conductance and photosynthetic CO[sub.2] assimilation, can be accurately estimated using measurements of SIF, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, and soil moisture as inputs. Our findings provide the experimental and theoretical foundations necessary for employing SIF mechanistically to estimate plant photosynthetic activity during periods of drought stress.