Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Loo, Mark Kam Loon

Titel

Belt and road initiative in ASEAN

Ist Teil von

• Reference Module in Social Sciences, 2022

Ort / Verlag

Elsevier Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2022

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• One Belt One Road (OBOR) was launched by China’s President Xi Jinping in Kazakhstan in September 2013 to outline the land road and October 2013 in Indonesia, the maritime belt (Lim et al., 2016). Re-named as Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the land and maritime infrastructure will connect over 60 countries and will cost US$1.4 trillion. Countries that host BRI are expected by 2050 to contribute 80% of global GDP growth (Vinayak et al., 2014). The BRI plans to expand to 150 countries facilitating trade and tourism. Connecting ASEAN to over 60 countries, BRI promises to enhance ASEAN’s prosperity and global competitiveness. This study analyzes the promise and identifies the potential gainers and losers in ASEAN with the BRI project. Indonesia will be the biggest gainer with shipping diverted from Malaysia and Singapore. Malaysia may be the biggest loser if China circumvents the Straits of Malacca through the Isthmus of Kra. If that happens, Thailand becomes the biggest gainer, negatively impacting Singapore and Indonesia. Myanmar will benefit from the East-West corridor, but connection with Bangladesh may worsen the Rohingya situation. Both Thailand and Vietnam will emerge as the biggest winners as they have maritime and land routes. Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar’s weak competitiveness may allow Chinese traders to dominate their economy.