Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Haywood, Alan M
• Tindall, Julia C
• Dowsett, Harry J
• Dolan, Aisling M
• Foley, Kevin M
• Hunter, Stephen J
• Hill, Daniel J
• Chan, Wing-Le
• Abe-Ouchi, Ayako
• Stepanek, Christian
• Lohmann, Gerrit
• Chandan, Deepak
• Peltier, W Richard
• Tan, Ning
• Contoux, Camille
• Ramstein, Gilles
• Li, Xiangyu
• Zhang, Zhongshi
• Guo, Chuncheng
• Nisancioglu, Kerim H
• Zhang, Qiong
• Li, Qiang
• Kamae, Youichi
• Chandler, Mark A
• Sohl, Linda E
• Otto-Bliesner, Bette L
• Feng, Ran
• Brady, Esther C
• Heydt, Anna S von der
• Baatsen, Michiel L J
• Lunt, Daniel H

Titel

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: Large-scale Climate Features and Climate Sensitivity

Ist Teil von

• Climate of the past, 2020-11, Vol.16 (6), p.2095-2123

Ort / Verlag

Goddard Space Flight Center: European Geosciences Union/Copernicus Publications

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Quelle

Free E-Journal (出版社公開部分のみ）

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports.