Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Lewis, Sophie C.
• King, Andrew D.
• Perkins‐Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.
• Wehner, Michael F.

Titel

Toward Calibrated Language for Effectively Communicating the Results of Extreme Event Attribution Studies

Ist Teil von

• Earth's future, 2019-09, Vol.7 (9), p.1020-1026

Ort / Verlag

Bognor Regis: John Wiley & Sons, Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Quelle

Wiley HSS Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Extreme event attribution studies attempt to quantify the role of human influences in observed weather and climate extremes. These studies are of broad scientific and public interest, although quantitative results (e.g., that a specific event was made a specific number of times more likely because of anthropogenic forcings) can be difficult to communicate accurately to a variety of audiences and difficult for audiences to interpret. Here, we focus on how results of these studies can be effectively communicated using standardized language and propose, for the first time, a set of calibrated terms to describe event attribution results. Using these terms and an accompanying visual guide, results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties. This standardized language will allow clearer communication and interpretation of probabilities by the public and stakeholders. Key Points The paper presents standardized language for communicating extreme event attribution results Event results are presented in terms of likelihood of event changes and the associated uncertainties This standardized language will have benefits for clear communication and interpretation