Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Jentzer, Jacob C
• Anavekar, Nandan S
• Bennett, Courtney
• Murphree, Dennis H
• Keegan, Mark T
• Wiley, Brandon
• Morrow, David A
• Murphy, Joseph G
• Bell, Malcolm R
• Barsness, Gregory W

Titel

Derivation and Validation of a Novel Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score for Mortality

Ist Teil von

• Journal of the American Heart Association, 2019-09, Vol.8 (17), p.e013675-e013675

Ort / Verlag

England: John Wiley and Sons Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2019

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

MEDLINE

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Background There are no risk scores designed specifically for mortality risk prediction in unselected cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) patients. We sought to develop a novel CICU-specific risk score for prediction of hospital mortality using variables available at the time of CICU admission. Methods and Results A database of CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007 to April 30, 2018 was divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The top 7 predictors of hospital mortality were identified using stepwise backward regression, then used to develop the Mayo CICU Admission Risk Score (M-CARS), with integer scores ranging from 0 to 10. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver-operator curve analysis. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic. The derivation cohort included 10 004 patients and the validation cohort included 2634 patients (mean age 67.6 years, 37.7% females). Hospital mortality was 9.2%. Predictor variables included in the M-CARS were cardiac arrest, shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap and red blood cell distribution width at the time of CICU admission. The M-CARS showed a graded relationship with hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.84 for each 1-point increase in M-CARS, 95% CI 1.78-1.89). In the validation cohort, the M-CARS had an area under the receiver-operator curve of 0.86 for hospital mortality, with good calibration (P=0.21). The 47.1% of patients with M-CARS <2 had hospital mortality of 0.8%, and the 5.2% of patients with M-CARS >6 had hospital mortality of 51.6%. Conclusions Using 7 variables available at the time of CICU admission, the M-CARS can predict hospital mortality in unselected CICU patients with excellent discrimination.