Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Zanatta, F.
• Engler, R.
• Collart, F.
• Broennimann, O.
• Mateo, R. G.
• Papp, B.
• Muñoz, J.
• Baurain, D.
• Guisan, A.
• Vanderpoorten, A.

Titel

Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities

Ist Teil von

• Nature communications, 2020-11, Vol.11 (1), p.5601-5601, Article 5601

Ort / Verlag

London: Nature Publishing Group UK

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Quelle

Elektronische Zeitschriftenbibliothek - Freely accessible e-journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7–96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades. Bryophytes tend to be sensitive to warming, but their high dispersal ability could help them track climate change. Here the authors combine correlative niche models and mechanistic dispersal models for 40 European bryophyte species under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, finding that most of these species are unlikely to track climate change over the coming decades.