Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Ye, Kunhui
• Woollings, Tim
• Screen, James A.

Titel

European Winter Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea‐Ice Loss Strongly Shaped by Change in the North Atlantic Jet

Ist Teil von

• Geophysical research letters, 2023-03, Vol.50 (5), p.n/a

Ort / Verlag

Washington: John Wiley & Sons, Inc

Erscheinungsjahr

2023

Quelle

Wiley Online Library Journals Frontfile Complete

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Previous studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea‐ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic‐European region to future Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming is analyzed, using model output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree that the North Atlantic jet shifts slightly southward in response to sea‐ice loss, but they disagree on the sign of the jet speed response. The jet response induces a dipole anomaly of precipitation and storm track activity over the North Atlantic‐European region. The changes in jet latitude and speed induce distinct regional surface climate responses, and together they strongly shape the North Atlantic‐European response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss. Constraining the North Atlantic jet response is important for reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic‐European precipitation response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss. Plain Language Summary Variations in the North Atlantic jet affect temperature, precipitation, and storminess in Europe. It is not well understood how the jet and European climate will respond to future sea‐ice loss in the Arctic under human‐caused increases in global temperature. We study how atmospheric circulation and surface climate in winter over the North Atlantic‐European region would respond to future Arctic sea‐ice loss under 2°C global warming, using an unprecedented number of coordinated simulations from different climate models. In many models the North Atlantic jet stream in winter responds by shifting southward, but the response of its speed is less clear. These jet stream changes are found to strongly shape the responses in precipitation and storm track activity. More precise estimates of the jet stream response are key to reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic‐European precipitation response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss. Key Points Projected Arctic sea‐ice loss causes a robust equatorward shift of the North Atlantic jet across models, but no robust change in jet speed Changes in jet position and speed strongly shape the European winter surface climate response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss Constraining the jet response is important for reducing uncertainty in the European precipitation response to future Arctic sea‐ice loss