Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Whiting, Daniel
• Mallett, Sue
• Lennox, Belinda
• Fazel, Seena

Titel

Assessing violence risk in first-episode psychosis: external validation, updating and net benefit of a prediction tool (OxMIV)

Ist Teil von

• BMJ mental health, 2023-06, Vol.26 (1), p.e300634

Ort / Verlag

England: BMJ Publishing Group Ltd, Royal College of Psychiatrists and British Psychological Society

Erscheinungsjahr

2023

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

MEDLINE

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• BackgroundViolence perpetration is a key outcome to prevent for an important subgroup of individuals presenting to mental health services, including early intervention in psychosis (EIP) services. Needs and risks are typically assessed without structured methods, which could facilitate consistency and accuracy. Prediction tools, such as OxMIV (Oxford Mental Illness and Violence tool), could provide a structured risk stratification approach, but require external validation in clinical settings.ObjectivesWe aimed to validate and update OxMIV in first-episode psychosis and consider its benefit as a complement to clinical assessment.MethodsA retrospective cohort of individuals assessed in two UK EIP services was included. Electronic health records were used to extract predictors and risk judgements made by assessing clinicians. Outcome data involved police and healthcare records for violence perpetration in the 12 months post-assessment.FindingsOf 1145 individuals presenting to EIP services, 131 (11%) perpetrated violence during the 12 month follow-up. OxMIV showed good discrimination (area under the curve 0.75, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80). Calibration-in-the-large was also good after updating the model constant. Using a 10% cut-off, sensitivity was 71% (95% CI 63% to 80%), specificity 66% (63% to 69%), positive predictive value 22% (19% to 24%) and negative predictive value 95% (93% to 96%). In contrast, clinical judgement sensitivity was 40% and specificity 89%. Decision curve analysis showed net benefit of OxMIV over comparison approaches.ConclusionsOxMIV performed well in this real-world validation, with improved sensitivity compared with unstructured assessments.Clinical implicationsStructured tools to assess violence risk, such as OxMIV, have potential in first-episode psychosis to support a stratified approach to allocating non-harmful interventions to individuals who may benefit from the largest absolute risk reduction.