Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Fekete, Alexander

Titel

Safe from Harm? Massive Attack Nuclear Worst-Case Scenario for Civil Protection in Germany Regarding High-Risk Zones of Exposure, Vulnerability, and Safe Havens

Ist Teil von

• Challenges (Basel), 2022-09, Vol.13 (2), p.47

Ort / Verlag

MDPI AG

Erscheinungsjahr

2022

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

EZB Electronic Journals Library

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• New risk geographies are emerging with war and conflict resurfacing, including nuclear threats. This poses challenges to civil protection for conducting risk-informed preparedness planning. A spatial assessment of Germany and Europe is conducted using a geographic information system. Buffer circles of nuclear explosion effects and fallout buffers show potentially exposed areas around major cities. Different scenarios indicate shrinking areas safe from exposure. However, even in a densely populated country, rural areas and smaller cities can be identified that could provide sites for evacuation shelters. Changing wind directions poses a challenge for civil protection planning because fallout risk covers most German territory even when few cities are attacked. However, wind speeds and topography can help identify suitable shelter areas. More knowledge about the temporal development of a nuclear explosion and its specific forms of harm can also help to improve risk knowledge and planning. While nuclear warfare at first seems to render useless any option for safe areas and survival, the spatial risk assessment shows that exposure does not occur at all places at all times. Being safe from harm will be difficult in such a worst-case scenario, but avoiding large city perimeters and being informed can also help reduce risk.