Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Zhang, Zhaowang
• Kong, Lingming
• Lin, Hualiang
• Zhu, Guanghu

Titel

Modeling coupling dynamics between the transmission, intervention of COVID-19 and economic development

Ist Teil von

• Results in physics, 2021-09, Vol.28, p.104632-104632, Article 104632

Ort / Verlag

Elsevier B.V

Erscheinungsjahr

2021

Quelle

Free E-Journal (出版社公開部分のみ）

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Current explosive outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is posing serious threats to public health and economics around the world. To clarify the coupling mechanism between this disease and economic development, a new dynamical system is established by ordinary differential equations (ODEs). It is theoretically proved that the basic reproduction number is a nonlinear combination of parameters regarding disease transmission, intervention and economy effect, which totally determines the stability of the disease-free and endemic equilibria. Further analyses indicate the existence of interaction and mutual restraint among transmissibility, quarantine and economics, in which (1) COVID-19 would cause a long-term impact on halting economic progress; (2) strong coupling of COVID-19 and economics would easily trigger disease outbreak, cause more human infections and alleviate the intervention effects of quarantine; and (3) there exists optimal strategy of time-varying quarantine for disease control and economic development. It is highlighted that adaptive isolation (rather than constant isolation) of at-risk population (rather than random individuals) is highly effective in reducing morbidity at the cost of least economic loss.