Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Oke, Jason L
• O'Sullivan, Jack W
• Perera, Rafael
• Nicholson, Brian D

Titel

The mapping of cancer incidence and mortality trends in the UK from 1980-2013 reveals a potential for overdiagnosis

Ist Teil von

• Scientific reports, 2018-10, Vol.8 (1), p.14663-8, Article 14663

Ort / Verlag

England: Nature Publishing Group

Erscheinungsjahr

2018

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Free E-Journal (出版社公開部分のみ）

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The incidence of cancer in the United Kingdom has increased significantly over the last four decades. The aim of this study was to examine trends in UK cancer incidence and mortality by cancer site and assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Using Cancer Research UK incidence and mortality data for the period (1971-2014) we estimated percentage change in incidence and mortality rates and the incidence-mortality ratio (IMR) for cancers in which incidence had increased >50%. Incidence and mortality trend plots were used to assess the potential for overdiagnosis. Incidence rates increased from 67% (uterine) to 375% (melanoma). Change in mortality rates ranged from -69% (cervical) to +239% (liver). The greatest divergences occurred in uterine (IMR = 132), prostate (IMR = 9.6), oral (IMR = 9.8) and thyroid cancer (IMR = 5.3). Only in liver cancer did mortality track incidence (IMR = 1.1). For four cancer sites; uterine, prostate, oral and thyroid, incidence and mortality trends are suggestive of overdiagnosis. Trends in melanoma and kidney cancer suggest potential overdiagnosis and an underlying increase in true risk, whereas for cervical and breast cancer, trends may also reflect improvements in treatments or earlier diagnosis. A more detailed analysis is required to fully understand these patterns.