Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Chen, Kai
• de Schrijver, Evan
• Sivaraj, Sidharth
• Sera, Francesco
• Scovronick, Noah
• Jiang, Leiwen
• Roye, Dominic
• Lavigne, Eric
• Kyselý, Jan
• Urban, Aleš
• Schneider, Alexandra
• Huber, Veronika
• Madureira, Joana
• Mistry, Malcolm N
• Cvijanovic, Ivana
• Gasparrini, Antonio
• Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M

Titel

Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels

Ist Teil von

• Nature communications, 2024-02, Vol.15 (1), p.1796-1796, Article 1796

Ort / Verlag

England: Nature Publishing Group

Erscheinungsjahr

2024

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Free E-Journal (出版社公開部分のみ）

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.