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Assessment of the effect of the financial crisis on agents’ expectations through symbolic regression
Erscheinungsjahr
2016
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
EBSCOhost Business Source Ultimate
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Agents’ perceptions on the state of the economy can be affected during economic crises.
Tendency surveys are the main source of agents’ expectations. The main objective of this study
is to assess the impact of the 2008 financial crisis on agents’ expectations. With this aim, we
evaluate the capacity of survey-based expectations to anticipate economic growth in the United
States, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom. We propose a symbolic regression (SR) via
genetic programming approach to derive mathematical functional forms that link survey-based
expectations to GDP growth. By combining the main SR-generated indicators, we generate
estimates of the evolution of GDP. Finally, we analyse the effect of the crisis on the formation
of expectations, and we find an improvement in the capacity of agents’ expectations to anticipate
economic growth after the crisis in all countries except Germany.
Peer Reviewed