Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Enke, Benjamin
• Graeber, Thomas
• Oprea, Ryan

Titel

Confidence, Self-Selection, and Bias in the Aggregate

Ist Teil von

• The American economic review, 2023-07, Vol.113 (7), p.1933-1966

Erscheinungsjahr

2023

Quelle

American Economic Association

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• The influence of behavioral biases on aggregate outcomes depends in part on self-selection: whether rational people opt more strongly into aggregate interactions than biased individuals. In betting market, auction and committee experiments, we document that some errors are strongly reduced through self-selection, while others are not affected at all or even amplified. A large part of this variation is explained by differences in the relationship between confidence and performance. In some tasks, they are positively correlated, such that self-selection attenuates errors. In other tasks, rational and biased people are equally confident, such that self-selection has no effects on aggregate quantities. (JEL C91, D44, D91)