Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Macian-Sorribes, Hector
• Pechlivanidis, Ilias
• Crochemore, Louise
• Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

Titel

Fuzzy Postprocessing to Advance the Quality of Continental Seasonal Hydrological Forecasts for River Basin Management

Ist Teil von

• Journal of hydrometeorology, 2020-10, Vol.21 (10), p.2375-2389

Ort / Verlag

American Meteorological Society

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Quelle

Free E-Journal (出版社公開部分のみ）

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Streamflow forecasting services driven by seasonal meteorological forecasts from dynamic prediction systems deliver valuable information for decision-making in the water sector. Moving beyond the traditional river basin boundaries, large-scale hydrological models enable a coordinated, efficient, and harmonized anticipation and management of water-related risks (droughts, floods). However, the use of forecasts from such models at the river basin scale remains a challenge, depending on how the model reproduces the hydrological features of each particular river basin. Consequently, postprocessing of forecasts is a crucial step to ensure usefulness at the river basin scale. In this paper we present a methodology to postprocess seasonal streamflow forecasts from large-scale hydrological models and advance their quality for local applications. It consists of fuzzy logic systems that bias-adjust seasonal forecasts from a large-scale hydrological model by comparing its modeled streamflows with local observations. The methodology is demonstrated using forecasts from the pan-European hydrological model E-HYPE at the Jucar River basin (Spain). Fuzzy postprocessed forecasts are compared to postprocessed forecasts derived from a quantile mapping approach as a benchmark. Fuzzy postprocessing was able to provide skillful streamflow forecasts for the Jucar River basin, keeping most of the skill of raw E-HYPE forecasts and also outperforming quantile-mapping-based forecasts. The proposed methodology offers an efficient one-to-one mapping between large-scale modeled streamflows and basin-scale observations preserving its temporal dependence structure and can adapt its input set to increase the skill of postprocessed forecasts.