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IEEE transactions on knowledge and data engineering, 2007-10, Vol.19 (10), p.1420-1432
2007

Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte
Titel
Using Ranked Nodes to Model Qualitative Judgments in Bayesian Networks
Ist Teil von
  • IEEE transactions on knowledge and data engineering, 2007-10, Vol.19 (10), p.1420-1432
Ort / Verlag
New York, NY: IEEE
Erscheinungsjahr
2007
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
IEL
Beschreibungen/Notizen
  • Although Bayesian Nets (BNs) are increasingly being used to solve real world risk problems, their use is still constrained by the difficulty of constructing the node probability tables (NPTs). A key challenge is to construct relevant NPTs using the minimal amount of expert elicitation, recognising that it is rarely cost-effective to elicit complete sets of probability values. We describe a simple approach to defining NPTs for a large class of commonly occurring nodes (called ranked nodes). The approach is based on the doubly truncated Normal distribution with a central tendency that is invariably a type of weighted function of the parent nodes. In extensive real-world case studies we have found that this approach is sufficient for generating the NPTs of a very large class of nodes. We describe one such case study for validation purposes. The approach has been fully automated in a commercial tool, called AgenaRisk, and is thus accessible to all types of domain experts. We believe this work represents a useful contribution to BN research and technology since its application makes the difference between being able to build realistic BN models and not.

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