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Energy Transition Metals: Bottleneck for Net-Zero Emissions?
Ist Teil von
Journal of the European Economic Association, 2024-02, Vol.22 (1), p.200-229
Ort / Verlag
Oxford University Press
Erscheinungsjahr
2024
Link zum Volltext
Quelle
Oxford Journals 2020 Social Sciences
Beschreibungen/Notizen
Abstract
The energy transition requires substantial amounts of metals, including copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium. Are these metals a bottleneck? We identify metal-specific demand shocks, estimate supply elasticities, and study the price impact of the transition in a structural scenario analysis. Prices of these four metals would reach previous historical peaks but for an unprecedented, sustained period in a net-zero emissions scenario, potentially derailing the energy transition. Their production value would rise nearly four-fold to USD 11 trillion for the period 2021–2040. These four metals markets alone could become as important to the global economy as the oil market.