Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Mu, Cuicui
• Mo, Xiaoxiao
• Qiao, Yuan
• Chen, Yating
• Wei, Yuguo
• Mu, Mei
• Song, Jinyue
• Li, Zhilong
• Zhang, Wenxin
• Peng, Xiaoqing
• Zhang, Guofei
• Zhuang, Qianlai
• Aurela, Mika

Titel

Ecosystem CO 2 Exchange and Its Economic Implications in Northern Permafrost Regions in the 21st Century

Ist Teil von

• Global biogeochemical cycles, 2023-11, Vol.37 (11)

Erscheinungsjahr

2023

Quelle

Alma/SFX Local Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Abstract Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO 2 emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO 2 balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO 2 exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio‐economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE‐ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO 2 emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO 2 uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air temperature and precipitation exert the most control over the net ecosystem exchange in the nongrowing season, while leaf area index plays a more important role in the growing season. This region will probably shift to a carbon source after 2,057 under SSP5‐8.5, with a net emission of 17 Pg C during 2057–2100. The net economic benefits of CO 2 budget will be $4.5, $5.0, and $2.9 trillion under SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5, respectively. Our results imply that a high‐emission pathway will greatly reduce the economic benefit of carbon assimilation in northern permafrost regions. Plain Language Summary The permafrost regions account for approximately 22% of the land area in the northern hemisphere. The soil organic carbon stored in permafrost is about twice as much as currently contained in the atmosphere. Once permafrost thaws, the soil organic carbon will be utilized by microbes, and large amounts of CO 2 will be released, further accelerating climate warming. On the other hand, warming significantly promotes vegetation growth and makes more carbon to be absorbed. The current and future carbon balance in northern permafrost regions remains largely unknown. Here, we calculated the carbon budget based on in situ observations of CO 2 flux. Our results provide a deep insight into understanding how much carbon has been assimilated and released in northern permafrost ecosystems. Our findings have important implications for the future role of northern permafrost in regulating the ecosystem carbon cycle and economic benefit. Key Points Northern permafrost regions are currently carbon sinks of approximately 791 Tg C per year The carbon sink will decrease with climate warming and will likely shift to a source in 2057 under a high emission pathway Economic benefits of carbon sinks will be greatly reduced under a high emission pathway