Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Dadashova, Bahar
• Ramírez, Blanca Arenas
• McWilliams, José M. Mira
• Izquierdo, Francisco Aparicio

Titel

Dynamic Statistical Model Selection: Application to Traffic Accident Analysis in Spain

Ist Teil von

• Procedia, social and behavioral sciences, 2012, Vol.48, p.642-652

Ort / Verlag

Elsevier Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2012

Quelle

Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Four time series: number and severity of both van accidents and victims in Spanish roads have been estimated using two main types of methodologies which are applied in the study of traffic accidents: demand for road use, accidents and their gravity (DRAG) and unobserved components model (UCM). Each model was estimated using explanatory and intervention variables that were divided into 9 groups. The explanatory variables were included in the models depending on how significant their t-values were. The final models were chosen using fit statistics such as AIC and R2. Finally, predictions were obtained by both methodologies and the prediction errors were compared. None of the two methods was clearly better; it depended on which response variable was being predicted.