Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Liu, Fang
• Sun, Weilun

Titel

Impact of active “organic decentralization population” policy on future urban built-up areas: Beijing case study

Ist Teil von

• Habitat international, 2020-11, Vol.105, p.102262, Article 102262

Ort / Verlag

Elsevier Ltd

Erscheinungsjahr

2020

Link zum Volltext

Quelle

Elsevier ScienceDirect Journals Complete

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• Recently, numerous mega cities have been experiencing similar issues while searching for strategies to create “safe, resilient, and sustainable population urbanization” development. In Beijing, the high population concentration polarization and uneven distribution of resources has aggravated the relationship between inhabitants and land use. In this study, the methodology has been proposed in which the current driving policy was embedded into the simulation mechanism quantitatively in an attempt to solve the problem that researchers cannot predict the future with the rule of historical change. To reveal the driving role of policies on population mobility, and evolutionary immigrant dynamics on the size of built-up areas, we proposed a loose coupling framework between a population prediction model and SLEUTH model methodologically, which included predicting the population density re-distribution and sub-rescaling, and simulating the built-up land in grid 1 km2 used for planning evaluation and adjustments, thereby making it possible to evaluate direct impact from human activities on the spatial expansion of built-up areas. The results herein may help urban planners and geographers understand how alternative modeling is more policy-oriented and can reveal the transfer mechanism in land use prediction. •This research evaluates the impact of an active "organic decentralization population" policy on future urban built-up areas.•This research contributes to the SDG11 goal of creating "safe, resilient, and sustainable population urbanization" mode.•The theoretical system of the equilibrium has been complemented in factors, patterns and interaction.•A method to simulate the built-up land change has been proposed, considering population re-distribution and sub-rescaling.•The improvement lies in a stronger dependence of future land on population density than on the existing traffic or slope.