Details

Autor(en) / Beteiligte

• Su, Y.Y.
• Li, Y.P.
• Liu, Y.R.
• Fan, Y.R.
• Gao, P.P.

Titel

Development of an integrated PCA-SCA-ANOVA framework for assessing multi-factor effects on water flow: A case study of the Aral Sea

Ist Teil von

• Catena (Giessen), 2021-02, Vol.197, p.104954, Article 104954

Ort / Verlag

Elsevier B.V

Erscheinungsjahr

2021

Quelle

Alma/SFX Local Collection

Beschreibungen/Notizen

• [Display omitted] •PCA-SCA-ANOVA (PSAF) is advanced for analyzing water flow variation.•PSAF is applied to investigate the variation of the Aral Sea inflow.•Increases in agricultural water use and water storage cause the inflow reduction.•Multiple scenarios are examined to seek an effective pathway to recover the inflow. An integrated PCA-SCA-ANOVA framework (abbreviated as PSAF) is advanced to analyze the impacts of multiple factors on water-flow variation. PSAF incorporates techniques of principle component analysis (PCA), stepwise-cluster analysis (SCA), and analysis of variance (ANOVA) within a general framework. PSAF cannot only quantify the sensitivity of water flow to individual and interactive factors, but also simulate water flow effectively under different scenarios. A case study of the Aral Sea is conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of PSAF. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients for calibration and validation are 0.96 and 0.84, respectively. Results reveal that the key impact factors that cause the variability of water flow from the Amu Darya into the Aral Sea are runoff in the upper reach (contributing 53%), agricultural water use (occupying 23%) and water storage in reservoirs (occupying 3%). Results also disclose that runoff in the upper reach and agricultural water use have obvious interaction; the high level of runoff in the upper reach can enhance the negative effects of agricultural water use on water flow. In the future, to recover the water flow from the Amu Darya into the Aral Sea to the level of that in the 1990s (about 8 km3), the decreasing rates of annual agricultural water use and water storage in reservoirs should be controlled at 1.0% and 0.5%, respectively. The findings are helpful for supporting water resources management and restoring the ecological environment of the Aral Sea.